⚔️ Proprietary Trading Strategies — The Seven Pillars

Thesis

Exploit the asymmetric return profile of leveraged ETFs by dynamically switching exposure based on HMM regime state.

Instruments

TQQQ (3x bull), SQQQ (3x bear), QQQ (1x), TLT (bonds), Cash

Entry Rules

• ▸Bull regime (>70% confidence): Long TQQQ, entry on pullback to 20 EMA
• ▸Transition: Deleverage to QQQ, tighten stops to 1.5x ATR
• ▸Bear regime (>70% confidence): SQQQ position or rotate 100% to TLT/cash
• ▸Low confidence (<60%): Reduce all positions by 50%

Exit / Risk

Trailing stop at 2x ATR, regime transition override, max hold 20 days in transition

Edge

Leveraged ETFs compound favorably in trending regimes. By avoiding leverage during transitions/bear markets, we capture the upside while avoiding volatility drag.

Thesis

RSI(2) extreme oversold conditions on QQQ revert to mean with 75–80% historical success rate over 5-day holds.

Instruments

QQQ, SPY

Entry Rules

• ▸RSI(2) < 10 AND price below lower Bollinger Band AND Bull/Transition regime

Exit / Risk

RSI(2) crosses above 70 OR 5-day max hold. Hard stop: 3% below entry.

Edge

One of the most statistically robust short-term signals in equity markets. Larry Connors documented 75%+ win rate since 1993.

Thesis

Risk-on/risk-off rotation between leveraged equities and long-duration treasuries based on relative momentum and SMA trend.

Instruments

TQQQ, TLT

Entry Rules

• ▸Weekly evaluation. TQQQ when price > 200 SMA AND relative strength vs TLT positive
• ▸TLT when TQQQ < 200 SMA
• ▸Split 50/50 during uncertainty

Exit / Risk

Weekly rebalance based on relative strength score

Edge

Captures the negative correlation between equities and treasuries during stress events. TLT gained 14% during March 2020 while TQQQ fell 70%.

Thesis

Systematic premium collection through short-dated options, exploiting the accelerating theta decay curve in final 24 hours.

Instruments

QQQ 0DTE puts (sell), SPY 0DTE iron condors

Entry Rules

• ▸Sell OTM puts/condors at market open
• ▸Delta-neutral targeting
• ▸Close at 50% profit or 30 min before expiry

Exit / Risk

50% profit target OR 30 minutes before expiry. Max 2% portfolio per trade. Disabled during VIX > 30.

Edge

Implied volatility consistently overprices realized volatility (the variance risk premium). One of the most well-documented anomalies in finance.

Thesis

Post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) — stocks that beat estimates continue drifting in the earnings direction for 60+ days.

Instruments

Individual equities post-earnings

Entry Rules

• ▸Enter within 2 days post-earnings if: EPS beat > 5%
• ▸Positive price reaction
• ▸Above-average volume

Exit / Risk

20–40 trading day hold period

Edge

PEAD is one of the most persistent anomalies in finance, documented since Ball & Brown (1968). The market systematically underreacts to earnings surprises.

Thesis

VIX exhibits strong mean-reverting behavior. Extreme VIX spikes > 30 revert with high probability, creating opportunities in volatility instruments.

Instruments

SVXY, UVXY (short), SPY calls

Entry Rules

• ▸VIX > 28 AND VIX term structure in backwardation

Exit / Risk

VIX returns to 20-day SMA OR 20-day max hold

Edge

VIX mean reversion is one of the most reliable statistical properties in financial markets. The VRP (volatility risk premium) averages 3–4% annually.

Thesis

Correlation regime between QQQ and BTC-USD provides leading signals for risk appetite. When both trend in same direction with volume confirmation, it signals strong directional conviction.

Instruments

QQQ, BTC-USD

Entry Rules

• ▸Both assets trending same direction (20 EMA > 50 EMA)
• ▸Volume ratio > 1.2x for both

Exit / Risk

Divergence in trend direction OR volume exhaustion

Edge

Novel cross-asset signal exploiting increasing correlation between tech equities and crypto in risk-on environments (correlation rose from 0.15 in 2019 to 0.62 in 2024).