🛡️ Risk Shield
Multi-layer risk management • Circuit breaker • Kelly sizing
NORMAL OPERATIONS
VIX: 0.00 • All systems nominal
0.0
VIX Level
Max Drawdown Limitⓘ
📉15%
Daily Loss Limitⓘ
⛔3%
Cash Reserve Min
💵10%
Max Position Size
📏5%
🔒 Non-Negotiable Risk Rules
Max portfolio drawdown: 15%
Circuit breaker triggers, 24hr cooldown
Max daily loss: 3%
All trading halted for the day
Cash reserve: ≥10% always
Never fully invested, always have dry powder
Max single position: 5%
No single trade can risk more than 5% of equity
No leverage in BEAR regime
TQQQ/SQQQ disabled in confirmed bear markets
Fed day size reduction: 50%
FOMC, CPI, NFP days reduce all positions
📊 Position Sizing
Kelly Criterion with half-Kelly safety
Kelly Criterion
Optimal position size based on edge and win probability. We use Half-Kelly for safety.
position = f* × 0.5 × equity
Where p=win_rate, q=loss_rate, b=avg_win/avg_loss
Fallback Sizing
When insufficient trade history (<30 trades), uses confidence-based sizing:
Circuit Breaker
24-hour cooldown after max drawdown breach. All positions liquidated, no new entries.
📊 Position Risk
Current exposure and stop distances
📉 Drawdown Analysis
Computed from closed trades
📊 VIX Regime Zones
Strategy activation based on volatility